Friday, March 14, 2008

Advantage McCain


Despite being shut out of media coverage by everyone except right-wing talk radio hosts,

Despite consistent reports that the economy is quickly heading into a recession,

Despite the natural advantage which the Democrats have enjoyed on the generic presidential ballot for nearly two years now.

Despite these political realities, plus a incumbent president of his own party whom only a third of the American people support, John McCain is still not only competitive in general election match-ups, but is ahead in all of the most important states according to the Real Clear Politics Average. Check it:


McCain-Obama


National
Obama +0.7


Pennsylvania
McCain +1.4



Ohio
McCain +1.0



Florida
McCain +9.3


McCain-Clinton



National
Clinton +0.5



Pennsylvania
McCain +0.6



Ohio
McCain +0.3



Florida
McCain +5.6


Remember: Kerry Beat Bush by 2 and a half points in Pennsylvania in 2004.


Now I realize that these polls are all within the margin of error, but still, the results are nothing short of devastating for the Democrats, considering the factors that I listed above. This is not to mention the bloody battle still to be waged between the two Democrats vying for the nomination.

But there’s more. According to an L.A. Times national poll taken last month, when asked the question who would be better suited to protect the nation from terrorism McCain leads Clinton by 27% and Obama by a whopping 38%.

Even on the issue of Iraq, largely credited for handing the Democrats Congress two years ago, McCain leads Clinton by 16% and Obama by 17%, when those polled are asked which candidate they trust more to handle the situation in Iraq.

Now take those Iraq numbers and consider the fact that polls show that American public support for the military effort in Iraq is on the rise and the situation in that country continues to improve.

I realize that these numbers are not set in stone, but I think that Obama has peaked. He has received such a glowing and care-free introduction to the American people that there is nowhere for him to go but down.

This is especially true when people begin to pay attention to his policy positions, such as his 12% tax increase on individuals making more than $97,000 a year, a plan which would be disastrous for our economy at any time, but especially right now. For more on this bad idea go here:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120528180300228815.html?mod=googlenews_wsj


Or the fact that Obama has a tendency to hang out with raving bigots like Jeremiah Wright. See yesterday's post for more details on that.

At this point in 2004, I had no idea what was going to happen in the general election. All through the summer, I was a nervous wreck as polls showed a dead heat between Bush and Kerry.
This time around my political gut is telling me that things are going to turn out all right.

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10 comments:

Anonymous said...

What we are seeing in the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination is akin to a #8 seed playing a #9 seed for the right to move on and get completely drilled by the top seed in the next round.

Hillary could sweep to the nomination beginning immediately if she had enough intelligence to make one simple move: file for divorce tomorrow.

The populace simply will not elect someone whose greatest responsibility shall be to stand up for our country when she has already shown that she simply will not stand up for herself.

Anonymous said...

McCain will be ok if he does not choose Mitt Romney as a running mate....The GOP can no longer depend on the south to fall in line...Romney will not go over in the south....They don't like carpetbaggers in the south..

Marshall Gill said...

While what you say may be true, now, once there is an actual Democrat nominee everything will change.

Unless McCain has no debates with the Democratic nominee, he has ZERO chance of winning the Presidency.

All it will take for the mushy moderates, who helped him win the nomination, to vote democrat will be the supposed victim status of the Democratic nominee. Because "moderates" lack principles, they will vote with their feelings. They will not feel empathy for the old, cranky, "warmonger" at all.

They will, as a group, run to vote for the first woman/black candidate, because "it feels good".

McCain's "strengths" lie in his willingness and ability to ride both sides of many issues. This will also be his downfall. If do not have a sound political philosophy you will vote for "change" and McCain does not represent that.

The MSM has not even started attacking him, yet. It will be a bloodbath, when they do.

As much as I despise McCain, even he does not deserve what they will do to him.

Anonymous said...

Enjoy this while it lasts. Its actually the #9 seed waiting to play the winner of the Patriots Colts game.

The real nature of tsunamis, is not that they are spectacular events with the crashing of hundred foot waves, but that the water keeps on rising, and rising, and rising slowly steadily, quietly, with no great drama, and eventually everything is underwater.

The GOP basement is flooded.
The GOP first story is now under water.
The GOP second story is soon to go under.
The GOP house is under water.
The GOP senate is under water.
The water keeps rising, rising, rising.
Obama and Clinton collectively raise more money in a month then MccAin will raise in a season.
Democratic turnout is two and three to one over Republican turnout.
McCain already over-heated once under a gentled question from Elizabeth Bumiller, what's he gonna do when the MSM starts to hound and vet him?
The old man is one-trick war pony, in a time when people are sick of the war solution.


Keep telling yourself stories.

Anonymous said...

hey anonymous,
keep telling yourself that. The 527s are going to run Wright over and over and over and over. BO says he should get the nod over HRC because of his "judgement". wELL, if that is all he has then he is toast. His "judgement" to hang out with a racist anti-american fool and have that person as his mentor and advisor seems pretty DUMB to most americans. The pools have shifted in the last few days. Inner city victims and latte drinking libs on the coasts don't see why this is such a big deal because they probably agree with Wright. all the average folk see this for what it is. BO is doomed whether he beats HRC or not. He will lose PA, NC and IN and the superdelegates will kick him to the curb when they see is damaged goods.

Anonymous said...

Apparently, there’s a few things you didn’t notice.

1. The polls change daily.

That’s right, every single day something else happens and some one else is on top. At the moment it’s McCain. Tomorrow, it’ll be Hillary, then suddenly Obama. The polls are just a snapshot of the moment.

2. This is a contest for the democratic nomination, NOT the general election.

McCain has not only been involved in a few scandals, but he has flip-flopped on issues and used enough double talk to become the standard. There’s video’s all OVER You tube depicting him saying on thing at one moment and then another thing another time.

3. Bush endorsed him.

America does not want another Bush, he has the lowest approval ratings ever of a President. On top of that, The race for the Republican nomination in 2000 left McCain and Bush at ends with each other and that will all come back to haunt him.

Whether it is Hillary, Obama, or both… they will completely walk all over McCain. They’ve raised more money, have a better message, and stick to what they say.

It’ll be good to get the Dems back in the White house next year… this country could not withstand another 4 years of Republican tyranny!


Thanks!

Brian 

Anonymous said...

Wondering what the MSM and the democrats would say if George Bush said he had been a memeber of the KKK for 20 yrs......Do you think if he said I don't remember anything that said for 20 years....So you can't hold me accountable for what the others said..

Anonymous said...

I just love how you die hard republicans grasp at every little straw that comes your way.

The facts are that once the Dems select a candidate support will solidify and McCain wil soon be in the same spot he was last summer.

The 527s, the RNC, The Swift Boaters and the rest of them can spend all the money they want to spread whatever news they feel might help them win but NO ONE IS LISTENING ANYMORE!

Just look at what happened to Denny Hastert's seat in Illinois. The RNC spent nearly $1.5 Million and paraded every republican celebrity they could find and they still lost the seat to a polital neophyte.

There are several seats in both the house and the senate that are going unchallenged by any republicans at all because no one is willing to even represent the party in those races.

As long as John McCain ties his fortunes to GOP's grand old message he is going to lose.

America is watching and living through the disaster that has been wrought by the three decades of right wing rule and they are ready for things to change.

You guys are starting to sound like Carl Rove when he told the nation the republicans were going to keep the house and senate last time around because he had " the real numbers".

It doesn't matter how much your rub that latern, just saying it won't make it true.

WAKS UP!!!!

dan said...

I feel obligated to respond to the anonymous poster above and to this statement imparticular:

"America is watching and living through the disaster that has been wrought by the three decades of right wing rule and they are ready for things to change."

Let's talk for a minute about what 3 decades of GOP rule has wrought.

Since 1981 when Reagan took office the US has become the world's sole super power.

We have created the strongest economic engine the world has ever seen with unparalled opportunity for all.

Highest standard of living in the world.

We have freed countless millions from tyranical dictatorships.

For 20 out of the last 28 years there has been a Republican in the White House.

Only once have the Democrats held the presidency as well as the congress and the people hated it so much that they took congress away from the Dems after only two years.

Now, I'm not sure if the above poster is, delusional or just one of those individuals who only recently began following politics and suddenly thinks that he or she can hang with the big boys.

Who knows. Perhaps Jerimiah Wright discovered my blog and will become a regular contributor to my comments section.

It's just that we Republicans must not allow liberals to revise history for political gain, because not only is history on our side, but it is essential that we maintain our presence in the halls of power so that our nation remains as strong as it has been for the last 3 decades.

Dan said...

Oh and Karl does not start with a C.

I also don't know what "Waks Up" means, but it sounds dirty.